Top-seeded players on the men’s tour will kick off their 2026 BNP Paribas Open campaigns on Friday. Ahead of over a dozen weekend second-round matches, LWOT previews the California encounters in the desert. This set of predictions features Canadian No. 1 Felix Auger-Aliassime squaring off against veteran Gael Monfils. But who will advance?
ATP Indian Wells Day 3 Predictions
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Zachary Svajda
Davidovich Fokina’s latest tournament in Acapulco came to a sudden halt in the second round, as he now faces Svajda, an in-form American who upset Marin Cilic in the BNP Paribas Open first round. The Spaniard carries a 7-5 record going into the hard court swing, while Svajda is 15-4 this season, including ATP Challenger Tour results. The American has home roots in California. Davidovich Fokina did defeat Svajda just a few weeks ago in Dallas, but I’m picking the American to reverse course.
Prediction: Svajda in 3
Tomas Martin Etcheverry vs Denis Shapovalov
Etcheverry may still be coming off a career-defining moment, as he won the ATP 500 Rio event in February. Since then, the Argentinian withdrew from his next event in Chile. Shapovalov took out Etcheverry in straight sets in their only meeting in 2024, and the Canadian’s big win over Stefanos Tsitsipas on Wednesday suggests he should be comfortable on these North American courts. The Argentinian is no underdog, but adjusting to the hard courts could be a challenge, and I see Shapovalov having the edge.
Prediction: Shapovalov in 3
Lorenzo Musetti vs Márton Fucsovics
Head-to-head: First meeting
This match will mark Musetti’s first time on court since a heartbreaking injury forced him out of the Australian Open quarterfinals mid-match. Fucsovics is slowly returning to his best form in 2026, but if he is healthy, he should have enough consistency and form to win. Fucsovics does have a solid tennis history in the United States, winning his most recent title on hard courts at the 2025 Winston-Salem Open.
Prediction: Musetti in 2
Félix Auger-Aliassime vs Gael Monfils
Head-to-head: 1-1
Auger-Aliassime and Monfils first met in a big 2020 final, as the Canadian was on the ATP Tour come-up. At that event in Rotterdam, Monfils cruised past Auger-Aliassime 6-2, 6-4. That event marked the Frenchman’s latest ATP 500 title, as he’ll retire at the 2026 French Open. Auger-Aliassime, on paper, should be the favorite this time around, but Monfils does thrive on slower hard courts. Notably, since 2020, all of Monfils’ Top 10 wins have taken place on outdoor hard courts. Expect the Frenchman to put up a fight against a player prone to ups and downs.
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